South Africa’s African National Congress was on course for a historic defeat in this week’s local elections, with the former liberation movement falling below one-third of the national vote after more than 80% of ballots were counted, according to early results. The party of Nelson Mandela stood at roughly 32%, almost 14 percentage points below its 2021 municipal result, a slide that would mark an all-time low and another milestone in the ANC’s long retreat from the dominance it enjoyed after apartheid ended in 1994.

The result is not yet final, and the share could shift as remaining ballots are tallied. But the trend was clear enough for outlets across the political spectrum to describe a severe setback. The Guardian called it a bruising defeat for the once dominant party. MSN reported that the ANC was on track for new lows and, in one headline, an all-time election low with 32%. Newsday described a huge decline in voter support. Yahoo framed the outcome as the ANC’s 'worst nightmare' as its vote share tumbled.

A bruising verdict on the party of Mandela

The ANC has governed South Africa since the end of white minority rule and has long been the country’s dominant political force. Local elections are fought municipality by municipality, but the national share is closely watched as a barometer of the party’s health. With more than 80% of ballots counted, the Guardian reported that the ANC was below a third nationally and almost 14 points down on 2021. That is a remarkable fall for a party that once commanded large majorities and could still present itself as the natural party of government.

The ANC is on course to suffer a bruising defeat, with the once dominant party of Nelson Mandela falling to under a third of the vote nationally with more than 80% of ballots counted.

The framing differs by outlet, but the underlying story is the same. Some coverage stresses the historic scale of the loss and the possibility of an all-time low. Others place it in the longer story of the ANC’s decline. The Guardian notes that Wednesday’s fragmented vote marked another stage in the party’s fall, pointing to the cumulative effect of national and local failures. MSN and Newsday foreground the headline numbers: a party that once seemed unassailable is now struggling to hold a third of the vote. Yahoo’s 'worst nightmare' language captures the political shock, even if the final tally is not complete.

Why voters turned away

The causes are not mysterious. South Africa faces high unemployment, persistent crime, corruption and poor local service delivery. Municipal governments are responsible for many of the services that shape daily life, including water, electricity, sanitation, refuse collection and housing. When those services fail, voters punish the party in power. The ANC has also been damaged by corruption scandals and by the perception that liberation credentials no longer compensate for weak governance.

This is a long-running pattern rather than a single-election accident. The ANC’s support has been eroding for years, especially in urban areas where a younger, more demanding electorate is less attached to the party’s anti-apartheid history. In 2021, the party already fell below 50% in municipal elections. The early figures suggest that decline has accelerated. The result also lands after the ANC lost its national parliamentary majority in 2024 and entered a unity government, further evidence that South Africa’s post-1994 political settlement is being renegotiated.

What the numbers mean

• With more than 80% of ballots counted, the ANC was below one-third nationally, according to the Guardian.
• Early results put the party at about 32%, an all-time election low, according to MSN.
• The share was almost 14 percentage points below the 2021 municipal result.
• The vote was fragmented, with opposition parties, local formations and independents competing for space.

Local elections do not directly decide the national government, but they matter enormously. They determine control of councils and major metros, shape investment and service delivery, and send a signal about the ANC’s national credibility. If the party loses further ground in urban centres, coalition negotiations will become more complex and more consequential. South Africa has already seen unstable municipal coalitions, and a weaker ANC will have to bargain harder to retain influence.

Coalitions, instability and the road ahead

The immediate next step is for counting to finish and for parties to assess coalition arithmetic. The ANC’s worst-case scenario is not simply a lower share but the loss of key municipalities to opposition-led coalitions. For voters, the risk is that fragmentation produces unstable local governments that struggle to deliver services. For the ANC, the risk is a cycle in which local failure feeds national decline. For opposition parties, the opening is real, but so is the challenge of turning discontent into durable governing majorities.

The broader significance is hard to overstate. The ANC remains the central institution of post-apartheid South Africa, and its decline is reshaping the country’s politics. A result near 32% would confirm that the party’s historic aura no longer guarantees electoral dominance. It would also intensify debate inside the ANC about leadership, corruption and service delivery. The final numbers may move, but the early message from voters is unambiguous: the party of Mandela is no longer the party most South Africans automatically trust to run their towns and cities.